Research Announcement:
Moody’s – Toll road traffic in Mexico, Chile,
Colombia and Panama set to strong recovery, inflation to boost revenue
and cash flow
New York, February 22, 2022 —
» Traffic, cash flow continues recovering in 2022 with economic growth, inflation and investment
» Inflation rates will enhance revenue and cash flow but rising toll fares will come under social
pressures and scrutiny
Traffic for rated toll roads in Latin America will continue to strongly recover in 2022 amid economic
growth, long-distance freight and tourism, with inflation supporting both revenues and cash flows,
says Moody´s Investors Service in a new report.
“Inflation in Latin America will boost revenue and cash flow, since toll roads incorporate inflation into
their tariff setting formulas, but rising toll fares will test both regulatory support and social scrutiny,”
says Moody´s Analyst Ursula Cassinerio.
Even though we expect inflationary pressures in the region to recede in 2022, high inflation rates
reported in 2021 will boost revenue for toll roads as concessionaires in Chile, Mexico and Colombia
incorporate inflation into their tariff setting formulas, she adds.
On the other hand, rising toll fares will lead to social pressures and scrutiny, testing the support of
regulators. Amid social pressures and scrutiny, road operators will need a strong and supportive
institutional framework to help keep their cash flow predictable.
Overall, long-distance freight and tourism are creating the surge in traffic for Latin American toll
roads even with the strong economic recovery experienced in 2021 easing in 2022. Any new
movement restrictions imposed in response to new virus variants would have only a limited impact
on commerce. Rated roads that benefit most from tourism are in Mexico, where travel restrictions
have been generally soft.
Moody’s also expects new investments to enhance the toll roads’ networks and further enhance
positive traffic trends. Projects’ success will depend though on business confidence in regulatory
frameworks. The region’s toll road investment agenda is ambitious, with financing and execution
risks associated with the new projects varying by country.
Subscribers can access the report at:
http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?
docid=PBC_1317070
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this
publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
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for the most
updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Ursula Cassinerio
Analyst
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Cristiane Spercel
Senior Vice President/Manager
Infra Finance
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
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