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Mexico’s economy expected to grow in Q2, but at slower pace

by 198 Mexico News
July 25, 2022
in MEXICO CHINA NEWS
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MEXICO CITY, July 25 (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy likely expanded for a third consecutive quarter between April and June, although at a lower rate due to the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China, a Reuters poll showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) (MXGDQP=ECI) is expected to have expanded 0.8% in the second quarter from the first quarter, in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 12 analysts.

Latin America’s second-largest economy grew 1% in the first quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms.

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“The result would be favorable and driven mainly by the strength of external demand,” Grupo Financiero Banorte said in an analysts’ report.

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“However, in our opinion, the outlook deteriorated over time, hit by greater external shocks, as well as a moderation in domestic momentum,” Banorte said.

Mexico’s economy is forecast to have grown 1.4% (MXGDYP=ECI) year-on-year in the second quarter, the poll showed, down from 1.8% growth in non-seasonally adjusted terms in the first quarter.

“We expect activity to slow during the rest of 2022, giving a cumulative GDP growth of 1.5% for 2022,” analysts from Citibanamex noted.

The fortunes of Mexico’s economy could take a turn for the worse in the months ahead as deteriorating global economic headwinds loom.

“Given the increasing probability of a global recession within the next 12 months, Mexico would be unable to avoid an economic contraction caused by a recession in the United States,” said Alfredo Coutino, head of Latin America Economic Research at Moody’s Analytics.

In this scenario, Coutino forecasts that by mid-2023 Mexico falls into a recession that last three quarters, coupled with prolonged inflation.

Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI is scheduled to publish the second-quarter preliminary GDP data on Friday morning.

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Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires and Kylie Madry in Mexico City; Writing by Valentine Hilaire; Editing by Anthony Esposito, Lisa Shumaker and Marguerita Choy

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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